Macron's gamble: will Trump actually show up for the whole G7?

Emmanuel Macron's rolling the dice. As France hosts the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, the French president has basically redesigned the entire agenda hoping one man will stick around long enough to actually participate. That man is Donald Trump, who has a track record of leaving summits early and, well, saying inflammatory things about his hosts.

Last year in Kananaskis, Canada, Trump bolted ahead of schedule to focus on Iran negotiations. Before he left, he took a parting shot at Macron, calling him "publicity seeking" and claiming the French president "always gets it wrong." Ouch. So now Macron's trying to make this summit so Trump-friendly that maybe—just maybe—he'll stay for all three days without causing chaos.

The problem? Nobody actually knows what Trump will do. He's unpredictable by design. He could waltz out after eight hours. He could tweet something that derails everything. He could leave to handle another international crisis (Iran's apparently back on his radar, naturally). It's like hosting a dinner party where your most important guest might not show up, or might show up, sit for one course, insult you, and leave.

The summit's supposed to tackle some genuinely heavy stuff: ending the Ukraine war, pushing for peace in Gaza, and managing the Iran situation. These aren't small-talk topics. They need sustained discussion. They need all parties present and engaged.

Macron's approach is diplomatic damage control wrapped in optimism. Frame the agenda around Trump's interests. Hope he sees value in staying. Try not to get publicly humiliated again. It's a strategy, technically. Whether it works is another question entirely.

French officials aren't hiding the anxiety. Behind closed doors, they're probably asking themselves: what if he leaves early again? What if he tweets something that tanks negotiations? What if he decides mid-summit that Iran needs his immediate attention?

The summit runs for three days. That's 72 hours of uncertainty. Macron's betting Trump will see enough benefit in staying to actually show up and participate like a normal world leader. For France's sake, let's hope he's right.